When it comes to the English Greyhound Derby, nothing is more critical than early pace (EP). This conclusion is backed by the data from the first two rounds of the Star Sports & TRC English Greyhound Derby. Whether considering trap draws, seeding, the likelihood of trouble during racing, or even winning times, early pace consistently emerges as the most influential factor.
Key Insights:
Dominance of Early Leaders: The data reveals that leading early is a significant predictor of success. In the 31 first-round heats analyzed, 18 winners belonged to the 'always led' group, meaning they led throughout the race, clocking the fastest sectionals in their heats. This group is color-coded in green in the graphic below.
Winning Statistics: Those who led from the start had an impressive win rate. If a greyhound led at the first bend, there was a 58% chance it would maintain the lead and win the race.
Sectional Times: All but four of these early leaders crossed the winning line for the first time in under 4.10 seconds. Crafty Shivoo, who was briefly headed after a 4.08 sectional, could be considered an honorary member of this leading group, potentially raising the number to 19.
The data unequivocally shows that early pace is paramount in the English Greyhound Derby. Greyhounds that manage to lead early significantly enhance their chances of winning. This insight should be a key consideration for trainers and bettors alike as they prepare for and analyze future races.